XAU/USD Forecast 2026-09-25: SMC Analysis & Key Liquidity Zones
Welcome to today's daily XAU/USD market breakdown by TebotechSignals. As we navigate the London and New York sessions on September 25, 2026, gold is currently trading around the $4,293 mark, showing a slight intraday recovery after recent bearish pressure. With the US Dollar Index (DXY) holding firm and shifting macroeconomic narratives surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate path, applying Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and ICT methodologies is crucial for identifying high-probability setups.
In this analysis, we will break down the Higher Time Frame (HTF) bias, pinpoint key institutional order blocks, and map out the Fair Value Gaps (FVG) that will dictate today's price action.
HTF Bias & Market Structure
From a Higher Time Frame perspective (Daily/Weekly), XAU/USD remains in a complex corrective phase following its all-time highs earlier this year. The recent price action shows a series of lower highs, indicating that institutional order flow has been predominantly bearish in the medium term. However, the reaction off the recent lows suggests that sell-side liquidity has been swept, and smart money may be accumulating positions for a retracement.
Currently, the 4-hour (H4) market structure is showing signs of a potential shift. We have seen a minor break of structure (BOS) to the upside, but price remains capped by premium supply zones. The overall HTF bias is neutral to slightly bearish, pending a clear displacement above key structural highs to confirm a bullish reversal.
Key Levels to Watch
To navigate today's sessions, we must focus on the specific liquidity pools and imbalances left by institutional algorithms.
Resistance (Premium Zones / Supply)
- $4,335 - $4,340: A significant H4 bearish order block and previous support-turned-resistance. This area contains a prominent Fair Value Gap (FVG) that needs to be filled.
- $4,371: A major structural pivot point. A confirmed break above this level would signal a shift in the short-term trend.
- $4,435 - $4,465: Deep premium supply zone and the origin of the recent aggressive sell-off.
Support (Discount Zones / Demand)
- $4,270 - $4,280: The immediate H1 bullish order block. This zone was created during the recent sweep of sell-side liquidity.
- $4,238: A critical daily support level and a major liquidity pool. If price reaches this level, expect strong institutional buying interest.
- $4,215: Invalidation level for short-term bullish setups.
Bullish Scenario
For a bullish setup to materialize during the New York session, we need to see price retrace into the discount demand zone at $4,270 - $4,280.
The Setup:
- Wait for a sweep of short-term sell-side liquidity into the $4,275 area.
- Look for a lower time frame (M5/M15) Change of Character (CHoCH) or a bullish displacement creating a new FVG.
- Enter on the return to the newly formed M15 order block.
- Targets: First take profit at the internal buy-side liquidity near $4,315, with a final target at the H4 FVG around $4,335.
Bearish Scenario
Given the overarching HTF bearish structure, shorting into premium supply remains a high-probability play, especially if the DXY continues to show strength.
The Setup:
- Allow price to rally into the premium FVG and bearish order block at $4,335 - $4,340.
- Wait for institutional distribution signatures on the M15 chart (e.g., a liquidity sweep of a previous session high followed by a sharp breakdown).
- Enter short on the subsequent retracement into the M15 bearish FVG.
- Targets: Target the immediate sell-side liquidity at $4,290, with an extended target at the major daily support of $4,238.
Economic Calendar This Week
Macroeconomic data acts as the catalyst for algorithmic price delivery. This week, traders must remain vigilant regarding the following events:
- US Core PCE Price Index: The Fed's preferred inflation gauge will heavily influence rate hike expectations.
- FOMC Member Speeches: Any hawkish rhetoric could strengthen the dollar and pressure gold prices.
- Initial Jobless Claims: A key indicator of labor market health, impacting intraday volatility.
Ensure you manage your risk tightly around these high-impact news releases, as spreads can widen and technical levels may be aggressively swept.
FAQ
What is an Order Block in SMC?
An order block is the last opposite-colored candle before a strong impulsive move that breaks market structure. It represents an area where institutional traders have accumulated or distributed large positions, making it a high-probability zone for future price reactions.
How does the US Dollar (DXY) affect XAU/USD?
Gold is priced in US dollars. Typically, there is an inverse relationship: when the DXY strengthens (often due to higher interest rates or hawkish Fed policy), gold becomes more expensive for foreign buyers, leading to a decrease in XAU/USD prices. Conversely, a weaker dollar supports higher gold prices.
Risk Disclaimer
*Trading foreign exchange and commodities on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The analysis provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. TebotechSignals does not guarantee any specific outcomes or profits.*
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