EUR/USD Forecast 2026-09-25: Navigating Bearish Order Flow and Liquidity Targets

Welcome to today's comprehensive market breakdown. As we step into the New York trading session on September 25, 2026, the EUR/USD pair is exhibiting classic Smart Money Concepts (SMC) price action. Currently trading around the 1.1376 to 1.1397 zone, the Euro has been under sustained pressure, marking its weakest levels in recent weeks. This downside momentum is largely driven by hawkish Federal Reserve repricing and soaring US Treasury yields, which continue to provide a strong fundamental tailwind for the US Dollar, as noted by EUR/USD Forecast, News and Analysis - FXStreet.

For traders utilizing our premium insights at TebotechSignals, understanding the institutional order flow is critical today. We are seeing a clear displacement to the downside, leaving behind significant imbalances and unmitigated order blocks that will serve as our primary points of interest (POIs) for the sessions ahead. Let's dive into the Higher Time Frame (HTF) narrative and map out the algorithmic price delivery.

HTF Bias & Market Structure

From a Higher Time Frame perspective (Daily and 4H charts), the market structure remains undeniably bearish. The EUR/USD recently broke below the psychological 1.1500 handle, a level that previously acted as a major accumulation zone. The daily chart shows spot prices holding firmly below the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.1501, confirming the bearish near-term bias.

In SMC terms, we have witnessed a clear Break of Structure (BOS) to the downside. The algorithmic delivery of price is currently seeking Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) resting below the recent swing lows. The institutional narrative suggests that smart money is distributing long positions and accumulating shorts on retracements into premium pricing arrays. Until we see a decisive Change of Character (CHoCH) on the 4H timeframe—specifically a close above the 1.1485 supply zone—our macro bias remains strictly bearish. Traders should be looking to align their lower timeframe entries with this HTF bearish order flow, utilizing our premium trading signals for precise execution.

Key Levels to Watch

To navigate today's price action, we must identify the key institutional reference points. These are the areas where we anticipate algorithmic intervention, either for mitigation or liquidity sweeps.

• Bearish Order Block (Premium POI): 1.1480 - 1.1500 - This is the last up-close candle before the significant displacement that broke market structure. It aligns perfectly with the 20-period EMA and represents a high-probability area for institutional short entries.
• Fair Value Gap (FVG): 1.1420 - 1.1450 - A clear imbalance exists on the 1H and 4H charts. Price is likely to draw up into this FVG to rebalance the price delivery before continuing its descent.
• Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL): 1.1400 - Short-term equal highs have formed just below the 1.1400 handle. This is a prime target for a "Judas Swing" during the London or New York open to trap early retail shorts before the true move.
• Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) / Target: 1.1350 & 1.1300 - The immediate draw on liquidity is the un-swept lows at 1.1350. Below that, the 1.1300 psychological level acts as a major magnet for algorithmic pricing.

For a deeper understanding of how we identify these zones, review our educational post on mastering Fair Value Gaps.

Bullish Scenario

While the HTF bias is bearish, we must always be prepared for counter-trend institutional maneuvers, especially during high-volatility news windows.

For a bullish scenario to unfold today, we would need to see price sweep the immediate Sell-Side Liquidity at 1.1350 during the New York session, followed by an aggressive displacement higher that breaks the 15-minute market structure (a bullish CHoCH). If price reclaims the 1.1400 level with strong momentum, it could trigger a short squeeze, sending the pair into the 1.1450 FVG or even the 1.1480 Order Block.

Actionable Plan: Wait for a liquidity sweep of 1.1350. If a 5m/15m bullish CHoCH occurs with a supporting FVG, aggressive traders can look for long entries targeting 1.1420. However, remember that this is counter-trend trading and carries higher risk. Check our historical performance to see how we manage counter-trend risk.

Bearish Scenario

Our primary expectation aligns with the bearish scenario. We anticipate a manipulation phase (Judas Swing) higher into premium pricing during the New York session overlap.

Ideally, we want to see price push up to sweep the Buy-Side Liquidity at 1.1400 and tap into the 1.1420-1.1450 FVG. Once inside this premium array, we will monitor the lower timeframes (1m/5m) for a bearish CHoCH and a subsequent return to a bearish order block or FVG. This would confirm that smart money is defending the HTF bearish structure.

Actionable Plan: Look for short setups if price reaches the 1.1420-1.1450 zone and shows signs of institutional distribution. The primary target for these shorts will be the 1.1350 SSL, with a secondary extended target at the 1.1300 psychological level.

Economic Calendar This Week

Macroeconomic data acts as the catalyst for algorithmic price delivery. Today, September 25, 2026, we have significant US data that will inject volatility into the New York session, as highlighted by the United States Economic Calendar for September 25, 2026.

• 08:30 AM EST: US Durable Goods Orders (M-o-M) - A key indicator of manufacturing health and economic momentum.
• 10:00 AM EST: University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index - A crucial gauge of consumer sentiment and potential future spending.

Traders should expect erratic price action around these release times. Often, the initial spike is a liquidity grab designed to stop out retail traders before the true institutional move begins. We recommend being flat or having risk strictly managed heading into the 08:30 AM and 10:00 AM windows.

FAQ

What is the current trend for EUR/USD today? The current Higher Time Frame (HTF) trend for EUR/USD is bearish. The pair is trading below key moving averages and has consistently broken market structure to the downside, driven by a strong US Dollar and hawkish Federal Reserve expectations.

How do I trade the EUR/USD using Smart Money Concepts today? Using SMC, you should look to align with the bearish order flow. Wait for price to retrace into premium arrays, such as the Fair Value Gap (FVG) at 1.1420-1.1450 or the bearish Order Block at 1.1480. Look for lower timeframe confirmation (CHoCH) in these zones before entering short positions targeting Sell-Side Liquidity at 1.1350.

Risk Disclaimer

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment. The analysis and forecasts provided in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. TebotechSignals does not guarantee any specific outcomes or profits.

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