10 SMC Backtesting Case Studies: Real TebotechSignals Trades Analyzed (2026)
TL;DR: We dissect 10 real closed signals from TebotechSignals — 6 wins and 4 losses — using Smart Money Concepts. Each case study covers order blocks, Fair Value Gaps (FVGs), liquidity sweeps, BOS/CHoCH, and what went right or wrong. Win rate: 60.9%. Net pips: +3,575. Profit factor: 2.42. No fake win rates, no deleted losses.
Why We Publish Our Losses
Most signal providers only show wins. We show everything. A 60.9% win rate with 1:3.2 R:R is mathematically more profitable than a 90% win rate with 1:0.5 R:R. Understanding WHY trades fail is more valuable than bragging about winners.
Aggregate Results
| Metric | Value |
|--------|-------|
| Total Signals (platform-wide) | 77 |
| Closed Signals | 69 |
| Wins | 28 |
| Losses | 20 |
| Win Rate | 60.9% |
| Net Pips | +3,575 |
| Profit Factor | 2.42 |
| Average R:R | 1:3.2 |
The 10 Case Studies
🟢 Wins (6)
| # | Pair | Direction | Result | SMC Concept |
|---|------|-----------|--------|-------------|
| 1 | USD/JPY | SELL | +68 pips | CHoCH + Order Block |
| 2 | NZD/USD | SELL | +55 pips | Inducement + FVG |
| 3 | AUD/USD | SELL | +22 pips | Entanglement (DXY) |
| 4 | XAU/USD | SELL | +550 pips | A+ Continuation + Fib |
| 5 | USD/JPY | BUY | +500 pips | Intervention Failure |
| 6 | GBP/USD | SELL | +6 pips | BOS + Order Block |
🔴 Losses (4)
| # | Pair | Direction | Result | What Went Wrong |
|---|------|-----------|--------|-----------------|
| 7 | EUR/USD | BUY | -148 pips | FOMC Superposition |
| 8 | GBP/USD | BUY | -130 pips | Entanglement (DXY) |
| 9 | USD/JPY | SELL | -60 pips | Direction Error (USD-base) |
| 10 | GBP/JPY | SELL | -75 pips | Correlated JPY Risk |
| 11 | BTC/USD | SELL | -1,600 pips | Liquidity Sweep Stop |
5 Rules Derived From These Case Studies
- Never issue directional signals within 10 days of a T1 event (FOMC, ECB, BoE) — the market is in superposition
- Check USD position in every pair — DXY strength = BUY USD-base + SELL USD-counter
- Place stops ABOVE the BSL, not at it — especially in crypto where sweeps are violent
- Limit correlated exposure — don't hold 2+ entangled USD-counter signals simultaneously
- Look for OB + Fibonacci confluence at 50%–61.8% — highest-probability entry zone
Pairs Covered
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, GBP/JPY, XAU/USD (Gold), BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
SMC Concepts Demonstrated
Order Blocks, Fair Value Gaps (FVGs), Liquidity Sweeps, BOS, CHoCH, Inducement, Fibonacci Retracements, Kill Zones, Volume Distribution/Accumulation, Quantum Entanglement, Monte Carlo Simulation, EV Calculator, MTCM
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⚠️ Trading involves significant risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. These case studies are for educational purposes only and are not financial advice.
