TL;DR:
- Monday September 14, 2026 SMC market scan — FOMC is Wednesday (2 days away)
- EUR/USD at 1.1568 (lowest since August), Gold at $4,329 (3rd weekly decline), GBP/USD at 1.3506
- 3 high-probability setups identified using SMC methodology
- FOMC Wednesday is the week's biggest risk event — manage risk accordingly
Monday SMC Market Scan: September 14, 2026 — FOMC Week Setups
It's Monday. London session is opening. FOMC is Wednesday. Here's your SMC market scan for the week.
Current Market Context (September 14, 2026)
| Pair | Current Price | Weekly Trend | Key Driver |
|------|--------------|-------------|------------|
| EUR/USD | 1.1568 | ↓ Declining | USD strength, FOMC anticipation |
| XAU/USD | $4,329 | ↓ 3rd weekly decline | Hot PPI, USD strength |
| GBP/USD | 1.3506 | ↓ Declining | BoE dovish, USD strength |
| USD/JPY | ~153.85 | ↑ Rising | USD strength, BoJ divergence |
Macro context:
- US PPI came in hotter than expected last week → USD strength
- FOMC meeting Wednesday September 16 — markets split on hike vs hold
- Gold has declined 3 consecutive weeks — longest streak in months
- EUR/USD at lowest since August
SMC read: USD is in demand across the board. The HTF bias is DOLLAR BULLISH (EUR/USD bearish, Gold bearish, GBP/USD bearish, USD/JPY bullish). Until FOMC, expect continued USD strength or consolidation.
Top 3 SMC Setups This Week
Setup 1: XAU/USD SELL — Confluence 9/10 ⭐
HTF Bias: Bearish (3rd consecutive weekly decline, D1 bearish BOS)
Entry Zone: $4,338-$4,345 (H4 bearish order block)
Stop Loss: $4,370 (above order block + recent swing high)
TP1: $4,300 (+38 pips) | TP2: $4,270 (+68 pips) | TP3: $4,235 (+103 pips)
R:R: 1:2.9
SMC Reasoning:
- D1 bearish BOS confirmed last week
- H4 bearish order block at $4,338-$4,345
- FVG present below current price (target: fill at $4,300)
- Liquidity pool above at $4,370 (equal highs from last week)
- Gold declining 3 consecutive weeks = strong momentum
Kill Zone: NY Open (7-10 AM EST) — gold moves best during NY session
Position Sizing (1% risk):
| Account | Risk | Lots (32-pip SL) |
|---------|------|------------------|
| $5K | $50 | 0.016 |
| $10K | $100 | 0.031 |
| $50K | $500 | 0.156 |
Setup 2: EUR/USD SELL — Confluence 8/10
HTF Bias: Bearish (at lowest since August, D1 bearish BOS)
Entry Zone: 1.1580-1.1595 (H4 bearish order block)
Stop Loss: 1.1620 (above recent swing high)
TP1: 1.1540 (+40 pips) | TP2: 1.1500 (+80 pips) | TP3: 1.1460 (+120 pips)
R:R: 1:3.2
SMC Reasoning:
- D1 bearish — price making lower lows
- H4 bearish order block at 1.1580-1.1595
- FVG below at 1.1540 (unfilled from last week)
- Liquidity above at 1.1620 (equal highs)
- FOMC Wednesday — if Fed holds (expected), USD may strengthen further
Kill Zone: London Open (2-5 AM EST)
Position Sizing (1% risk):
| Account | Risk | Lots (40-pip SL) |
|---------|------|------------------|
| $5K | $50 | 0.125 |
| $10K | $100 | 0.250 |
| $50K | $500 | 1.250 |
Setup 3: GBP/USD SELL — Confluence 8/10
HTF Bias: Bearish (declining, BoE dovish)
Entry Zone: 1.3520-1.3535 (H4 bearish order block)
Stop Loss: 1.3560 (above order block)
TP1: 1.3480 (+40 pips) | TP2: 1.3440 (+80 pips) | TP3: 1.3400 (+120 pips)
R:R: 1:3.0
SMC Reasoning:
- D1 bearish BOS
- H4 bearish order block at 1.3520-1.3535
- FVG at 1.3480 (target for TP1)
- BoE remains dovish — fundamental support for shorts
- GBP/USD down 0.15% today already
Kill Zone: London/NY overlap (7-11 AM EST)
What NOT to Trade This Week
❌ USD/JPY BUY — BoJ Intervention Risk
USD/JPY at ~153.85 is approaching the 155 level where BoJ has historically intervened. Entering long here risks getting stopped out by an intervention spike. Wait for a pullback to 152.50-153.00 or skip entirely.
❌ Any trade Wednesday during FOMC
FOMC announcement at 2:00 PM EST Wednesday. Do NOT hold trades into the announcement. Close or reduce positions before 1:00 PM EST Wednesday. Volatility spikes can hit stop losses in both directions.
Week's Economic Calendar
| Day | Event | Impact | Pairs Affected |
|-----|-------|--------|---------------|
| Mon Sep 14 | No major events | Low | All |
| Tue Sep 15 | US Retail Sales | High | All USD pairs, Gold |
| Wed Sep 16 | FOMC Decision | Critical | ALL pairs, Gold, Indices |
| Thu Sep 17 | US Jobless Claims | Medium | USD pairs |
| Fri Sep 18 | No major events | Low | All |
SMC Trading Plan for FOMC Week
Monday-Tuesday: Trade normally during kill zones
- Enter the 3 setups above if price reaches the entry zones
- Keep position sizes at 1% risk
- No new trades after Tuesday 10 AM EST
Wednesday: NO TRADING
- Close all open positions by 1:00 PM EST
- Do not enter new trades
- Watch the FOMC announcement at 2:00 PM EST
- Wait for Thursday London open to resume
Thursday-Friday: Post-FOMC trading
- Analyze the market reaction
- New HTF bias will be established post-FOMC
- Look for FVG + OB setups that form from the FOMC volatility
- Trade normally during kill zones
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Why are all 3 setups SELL?
A: Because the USD is strong across the board. PPI was hot, FOMC is expected to hold (which supports USD), and gold has declined 3 weeks straight. The SMC bias is dollar-bullish until FOMC changes it.
Q: What if FOMC raises rates?
A: USD strengthens further. EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and Gold would likely drop. Your SELL setups would benefit. But volatility would be extreme — that's why we close before the announcement.
Q: What if FOMC cuts rates?
A: USD weakens. Your SELL setups would be at risk. This is why we close positions before FOMC — we don't gamble on the outcome.
Q: Where can I see live signals?
A: All our signals are at /signals. We publish entry, SL, TP1-3, confluence score, Volu-Smart rating, and fakeout risk for every setup.
*⚠️ This market scan is for educational purposes only. Trading involves substantial risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Never risk more than you can afford to lose.*
Related:
- 📋 SMC Cheat Sheet — 7-point checklist
- 📝 Case Study: $5K to $15K — Complete SMC journey
- 📊 Live Signals — Current SMC setups
- 📈 Performance — Verified 42.9% win rate
