TL;DR:
- Monday September 14, 2026 market scan: FOMC Wednesday, USD strength building
- EUR/USD at 1.157-1.162 — key liquidity levels for the week
- Gold (XAU/USD) positioning for FOMC reaction
- 3 high-probability SMC setups identified for London/NY kill zones this week
Monday Market Scan: September 14, 2026 — FOMC Week SMC Setups
It's Monday morning. FOMC is Wednesday. This is one of the highest-impact weeks of the quarter. Here's your SMC battle plan.
Macro Context
FOMC Rate Decision: Wednesday, September 16, 2026
Markets are pricing a close call — approximately 52% probability of a hold vs 46% hike. This uncertainty creates:
- Pre-FOMC positioning (Monday-Tuesday): Range-bound with liquidity sweeps
- FOMC reaction (Wednesday 2 PM EST): High volatility, direction depends on statement
- Post-FOMC follow-through (Thursday-Friday): Trend continuation or reversal
Current Prices (September 14, 2026)
| Pair | Price | Weekly Change | SMC Bias |
|------|-------|---------------|----------|
| EUR/USD | 1.157-1.162 | -0.3% | Bearish (D1) |
| XAU/USD | ~$4,440 | +0.2% | Bearish (H4) / Bullish (D1) |
| GBP/USD | ~1.350 | Flat | Bullish (D1) |
| USD/JPY | ~157.4 | +0.5% | Bearish (H4) |
| US30 | ~41,500 | -0.3% | Bearish (H4) |
Setup 1: EUR/USD — Bearish Continuation into FOMC
HTF Bias: D1 bearish — lower highs and lower lows
Key Levels:
- Sell-side liquidity: 1.1550 (recent low)
- Buy-side liquidity: 1.1650 (recent high)
- H4 Bearish OB: 1.1610-1.1630
- FVG: 1.1580-1.1595
Scenario: Price sweeps 1.1650 buy-side liquidity early in the week, then reverses into the bearish OB. Enter on the retest of the OB with FVG confluence.
Entry Zone: 1.1610-1.1620
Stop Loss: 1.1655 (above liquidity sweep)
TP1: 1.1560 | TP2: 1.1530 | TP3: 1.1500
R:R: 1:3
Confluence: 8/10
Setup 2: XAU/USD — FOMC Volatility Play
HTF Bias: D1 bullish but H4 showing distribution
Key Levels:
- Buy-side liquidity: $4,470 (recent high)
- Sell-side liquidity: $4,395 (recent low)
- H4 Bullish OB: $4,410-$4,425
- Bearish FVG: $4,450-$4,460
Scenario A (Hawkish FOMC): Gold drops to $4,410 OB, bounces. BUY setup.
Scenario B (Dovish FOMC): Gold breaks $4,470, targets $4,500+. BUY on breakout retest.
Entry Zone A: $4,410-$4,425
Entry Zone B: $4,470 retest after breakout
Stop Loss A: $4,395 | Stop Loss B: $4,455
TP1: $4,460 | TP2: $4,495 | TP3: $4,530
R:R: 1:3
Confluence: 9/10
Setup 3: US30 — Bearish into FOMC
HTF Bias: H4 bearish, D1 topping pattern
Key Levels:
- Buy-side liquidity: 41,800 (recent high)
- Sell-side liquidity: 40,900 (recent low)
- H4 Bearish OB: 41,400-41,550
Scenario: Price rallies into 41,400-41,550 zone during Monday-Tuesday, then reverses. SELL on OB retest with FVG.
Entry Zone: 41,400-41,500
Stop Loss: 41,850
TP1: 40,900 | TP2: 40,600 | TP3: 40,300
R:R: 1:3
Confluence: 8/10
Key Events This Week
| Day | Event | Impact |
|-----|-------|--------|
| Monday | No major US data | Low volatility, range prep |
| Tuesday | US PPI | Medium — pre-FOMC positioning |
| Wednesday | FOMC Rate Decision (2:00 PM EST) | 🔴 CRITICAL |
| Thursday | US Retail Sales + Jobless Claims | High — post-FOMC reaction |
| Friday | UoM Consumer Sentiment | Medium |
SMC Trading Plan for FOMC Week
Monday-Tuesday (Pre-FOMC)
- Mark all key levels and liquidity pools
- Take only A+ setups (8/10+ confluence)
- Close all positions before Wednesday 1:00 PM EST
- DO NOT hold through FOMC
Wednesday (FOMC Day)
- No new trades before 2:00 PM EST
- Wait for the statement + press conference to finish
- Look for post-FOMC liquidity sweep + CHoCH setup
- Enter only if 7/7 checklist passes
Thursday-Friday (Post-FOMC)
- Follow the new trend direction
- Look for OB + FVG retest entries
- Be patient — the best post-FOMC setups come 6-12 hours after the decision
Active Signals on TebotechSignals
Our current active board (all 8/10+ confluence):
- XAU/USD SELL — 9/10, distribution (aligned with pre-FOMC bearish setup)
- EUR/GBP BUY — 9/10 (⚠️ volume conflict flagged, reduced sizing)
- XAG/USD SELL — 9/10, distribution
- US30 SELL — 8/10, distribution (matches Setup 3)
- USD/JPY SELL — 8/10, distribution
- NZD/USD SELL — 8/10, distribution
- EUR/USD BUY — 8/10, accumulation (contrarian to Setup 1 — monitor)
- GBP/USD BUY — 8/10, accumulation
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Should I trade on FOMC day?
A: Only after the press conference ends (~2:45 PM EST). Pre-FOMC trading is risky because the market can swing violently in both directions.
Q: What if FOMC is hawkish?
A: USD strengthens. EUR/USD drops, gold drops, US30 drops. Our SELL signals would benefit.
Q: What if FOMC is dovish?
A: USD weakens. EUR/USD rises, gold rises, US30 rises. Our BUY signals (EUR/USD, GBP/USD) would benefit.
Q: How do I prepare for FOMC?
A: 1) Mark all liquidity levels. 2) Close positions before 1:00 PM EST Wednesday. 3) Wait for post-FOMC sweep + CHoCH. 4) Enter only on 7/7 checklist.
*⚠️ Trading involves substantial risk. This analysis is for educational purposes only. FOMC weeks carry elevated volatility — reduce position sizes by 50% if unsure.*
Related:
- 📊 Live Signals — Current SMC setups
- 📋 SMC Cheat Sheet — 7-point checklist
- 📝 FOMC September 16 Guide — Full FOMC preparation
