GBP/USD Forecast: September 12, 2026

Welcome to today's daily market breakdown. As we head into the core of the London and New York trading sessions, the GBP/USD pair is currently hovering around the 1.3525 level, holding a constructive bullish bias as price stays above a dense band of technical supports FXStreet. Following a recent pullback from highs above 1.3640 toward the 1.3485 region FXGlory, the market is currently consolidating, presenting prime opportunities for traders utilizing Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and ICT methodologies.

HTF Bias & Market Structure

From a Higher Time Frame (HTF) perspective, the daily market structure remains bullish. The recent retracement into the 1.3485 discount array successfully mitigated a daily bullish Order Block (OB), leaving Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) intact just below. Until we see a decisive daily candle close below the 1.3480 threshold, our macro bias remains tilted toward the upside, targeting unmitigated Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) pools resting above the 1.3640 swing high. For a deeper dive into identifying these structural shifts, check out our guide to ICT order blocks.

Key Levels to Watch

Applying SMC principles, we have identified the following institutional reference points for today's sessions:

• Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) / Resistance: 1.3550 (1H Fair Value Gap) and 1.3640 (Major Swing High).
• Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) / Support: 1.3485 (Recent Swing Low) and 1.3450 (4H Bullish Order Block).
• Equilibrium / Fair Value: 1.3525 (Current Price Action / Daily Pivot).

Bullish Scenario

For a high-probability long setup, we want to see a classic London manipulation phase (Judas Swing) that sweeps the short-term SSL near 1.3500 without violating the HTF order block at 1.3485. If price sweeps this liquidity and prints a 15-minute Market Structure Shift (MSS) to the upside, leaving behind a fresh Fair Value Gap (FVG), this will be our trigger. We will look to enter on the retracement into the FVG, targeting the 1.3550 imbalance and ultimately the 1.3640 BSL. You can track how these setups perform on our performance page.

Bearish Scenario

Conversely, if the New York session opens with aggressive buying that mitigates the 1H FVG at 1.3550 but fails to displace higher, we will monitor for a bearish reversal. A failure swing followed by a break of local structure would indicate that Smart Money is utilizing the premium array to distribute short positions. In this scenario, a short entry from the 1.3550 region would target the 1.3485 lows. Understanding these traps is crucial; read more in our liquidity sweeps breakdown.

Economic Calendar This Week

Volatility is the lifeblood of day trading, and this week's macroeconomic docket provides plenty of catalysts. Traders must remain vigilant regarding upcoming US CPI data and any shifting sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve and Bank of England's interest rate stances IG. Ensure you are flat or properly hedged heading into these high-impact data releases to avoid slippage during algorithmic liquidity voids.

FAQ

What is the current trend for GBP/USD? Based on HTF market structure, the trend remains cautiously bullish as long as price sustains above the 1.3485 institutional support level.

How do I trade the London session for GBP/USD? Using SMC, wait for the initial London open to create a false move (Judas Swing) that sweeps Asian session liquidity. Enter in the opposite direction once a lower time frame market structure shift occurs.

Risk Disclaimer

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The analysis provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Never risk more than you can afford to lose.

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