EUR/USD Daily Price Forecast: September 24, 2026
Welcome to today's daily EUR/USD forecast, brought to you by the analysts at TebotechSignals. As we move through the Thursday trading sessions, navigating the transition from the London morning into the high-volume New York overlap, the Euro to US Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) is currently hovering around the 1.1387 mark.
Recent macroeconomic data has thrown a wrench into the narrative for Euro bulls. Despite the Eurozone composite PMI showing a modest beat (rising to 53.1 from 52.0), the US composite PMI printed a blistering 58.4, reinforcing the narrative of US economic exceptionalism. This divergence in economic strength continues to provide a massive tailwind for the greenback. From a Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and Inner Circle Trader (ICT) perspective, we are seeing textbook institutional order flow dictating the current price action.
In this analysis, we will break down the Higher Time Frame (HTF) bias, pinpoint the critical Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) and Order Blocks (OBs) institutional algorithms are targeting, and map out highly actionable bullish and bearish scenarios for today's intraday trading.
Higher Time Frame (HTF) Bias & Market Structure
To understand where price is going today, we must first look at the weekly and daily charts to establish our directional bias.
HTF Bias: Bearish
The EUR/USD daily structure remains heavily bearish. After a decisive Break of Structure (BOS) below the pivotal 1.1472 support earlier this month, the market has been aggressively delivering on the downside. We have printed consistent lower highs and lower lows, indicating that Smart Money is aggressively distributing long positions and accumulating shorts.
On the daily timeframe, the algorithm recently engineered a run on Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) above the 1.1420 short-term high, only to instantly reject and close lower, creating a classic Judas Swing pattern. This failure to sustain higher prices confirms that the prevailing institutional order flow is pointed downward, seeking the unmitigated Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) resting beneath the 1.1370 September lows and the psychological 1.1350 institutional level.
While momentum indicators (like RSI) may appear mathematically "oversold," in SMC methodology, we rely on market structure and liquidity pools, not oscillators. Until we see a definitive Change of Character (CHoCH) on the 4-hour chart, our overarching bias remains to sell rallies into premium arrays.
Key SMC Levels to Watch Today
For traders utilizing ICT methodologies, drawing your premium and discount arrays correctly is the difference between catching the institutional move and becoming retail liquidity. Here are the precise levels we are monitoring during today's New York session:
Premium Arrays (Resistance / Supply)
* 1.1400 - 1.1420 (1H Bearish Order Block & FVG): This is the primary zone of interest for shorts today. Yesterday's aggressive sell-off left a prominent Fair Value Gap here. Institutions will often reprice the asset into this imbalance to fill unfilled orders before continuing the markdown.
* 1.1472 (Daily Mitigation Block): This was the previous macro support that was decisively broken. It now acts as a massive institutional ceiling. Any spike into this region would represent a highly probable swing short opportunity.
Discount Arrays (Support / Demand)
* 1.1370 (Immediate Sell-Side Liquidity): This is the current September low. Retail traders have their stop losses resting just below this level. We expect a liquidity sweep here today.
* 1.1355 (4H Bullish Order Block / 2025 Retracement Level): If the 1.1370 level is swept aggressively, the 1.1355 zone marks a major 38.2% macro Fibonacci retracement and an unmitigated bullish order block from late last year. This is the prime target for intraday shorts to take profit and look for a potential reversal profile.
Intraday Scenarios for September 24
Depending on how the algorithms manipulate price during the New York open, we have two primary paths mapped out.
The Bearish Scenario (High Probability)
Given the prevailing HTF bearish structure and strong US PMI data, the bearish continuation is our primary expectation.
The Setup: We are looking for price to retrace upward into the 1.1400 - 1.1420 FVG during the early New York session.
The Trigger: Wait for a 5-minute or 15-minute CHoCH (Change of Character) inside this premium array. A strong displacement candle downward, leaving a new micro-FVG, will act as our entry.
The Targets: First partial profits should be taken at the internal liquidity draw of 1.1380. The final target is a sweep of the Sell-Side Liquidity at 1.1370, extending into the macro support block at 1.1355.
The Bullish Scenario (Counter-Trend Reversal)
Counter-trend trading is inherently riskier, but SMC gives us the tools to identify true institutional accumulation.
The Setup: Instead of moving higher first, the algorithm drives price immediately down to sweep the 1.1370 SSL during the New York open, spiking down into the 1.1355 HTF Order Block.
The Trigger: We do not blindly buy the level. We must wait for a "Stop Hunt" or "Turtle Soup" pattern. If price sweeps 1.1355 and aggressively rejects back above 1.1370, creating a 15-minute BOS to the upside, we can bid the subsequent retracement into discount.
The Targets: A counter-trend long would target the Buy-Side Liquidity resting at 1.1420.
*Want to see exactly how our master traders are playing these levels today? Check out our verified trading performance and see why professionals trust TebotechSignals.*
Economic Calendar: High-Impact Events This Week
When trading SMC, we use high-impact macroeconomic news as the *catalyst* for the algorithms to seek liquidity. News doesn't change the structure; it provides the volatility needed to reach structural targets.
* Today (Thursday): US Unemployment Claims (12:30 PM UTC). Watch for algorithmic spikes that can be used to enter the 1.1400 FVG.
* Tomorrow (Friday): US Core PCE Price Index. This is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. A hotter-than-expected print will likely be the fuel needed to smash through the 1.1355 macro support and send EUR/USD into the 1.1200s.
* Next Week: Keep in mind that we are approaching Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) week, which will drastically alter the institutional volume profile as we close out the month of September.
*(Educational Note: If you want to learn more about how we trade news using liquidity sweeps, read our comprehensive guide on SMC Trading Strategies.)*
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What does a Change of Character (CHoCH) mean in EUR/USD today?
A CHoCH represents the first sign that institutional order flow is shifting. For EUR/USD today, a bullish CHoCH would require a strong 15-minute candle close above the 1.1420 lower high, signaling that the algorithms are shifting from a sell program to a buy program.
Why is the US PMI data pushing EUR/USD lower?
The EUR/USD exchange rate is heavily influenced by relative economic strength. The US composite PMI printed at 58.4 (expansion), vastly outperforming expectations. This leads the market to believe the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer, increasing the yield appeal of the US Dollar over the Euro, thus pushing the pair's price down.
Risk Disclaimer
*Forex trading carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment. The analysis, price levels, and scenarios provided in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Never guarantee outcomes in the financial markets, and always use strict stop-loss management.*
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