EUR/GBP Price Forecast – September 24, 2026

Welcome to today's EUR/GBP market analysis brought to you by TebotechSignals. As we navigate the trading session on Thursday, September 24, 2026, the EUR/GBP cross is trading around the 0.8597 mark, knocking on the psychological 0.8600 resistance door.

Fundamentally, the Euro is drawing strength from recent macroeconomic developments. The European Central Bank (ECB) recently delivered a hawkish 25 basis point rate hike, bringing the deposit rate to 2.50%, and signaled readiness for "longer-lasting" inflation due to energy pressures. Conversely, the Bank of England (BoE) opted to hold rates at 3.75%, citing easing domestic inflation. This central bank divergence—a hawkish ECB against a more cautious BoE—provides a robust macroeconomic tailwind for the Euro against the Pound Sterling, aligning perfectly with our recent technical setups.

Let’s dive into the charts utilizing Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and Inner Circle Trader (ICT) methodology to identify the high-probability institutional footprints for today's London and New York sessions.

HTF Bias & Market Structure

When we zoom out to the Higher Time Frame (HTF) daily and weekly charts, the narrative is firmly shifting from a consolidation phase to a bullish market structure.

Earlier this week, we witnessed a classic manipulation phase where price swept Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) below the 0.8550 level. Once institutional limit orders were filled at a discount, the algorithm heavily repriced the pair upwards, creating a decisive Break of Structure (BOS) above the previous daily swing high at 0.8585.

Currently, the Daily Order Flow remains bullish. We have observed consistent higher highs and higher lows since the ECB announcement. The institutional bias dictates that as long as we remain above the recent discount arrays, the draw on liquidity is explicitly toward the Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) resting above the 0.8620 and 0.8650 equal highs.

Key Levels to Watch

For intra-day and swing traders, plotting the correct institutional reference points is critical. Here are the exact levels we are monitoring today:

Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) / Resistance Targets

• 0.8620: The nearest pool of unmitigated BSL. This is the primary draw on liquidity for the rest of the week.
• 0.8650: A major psychological level and the site of older retail stop-losses (weekly highs from last month).

Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) / Support Zones

• 0.8565: Minor internal Sell-Side Liquidity. If we see a deep retracement, this level will likely be swept before continuation.
• 0.8540: Major SSL and invalidation point for the current bullish market structure.

Institutional Reference Points (OBs and FVGs)

• 4H Bullish FVG (0.8580 - 0.8585): This Fair Value Gap was created during yesterday's aggressive expansion. It remains untraded and serves as a high-probability discount array for long entries.
• Daily Bullish Order Block (0.8570): The last down-close candle prior to the explosive move upward. If the FVG fails to hold price, this Order Block is the ultimate institutional defense line.

Bullish Scenario

Our primary expectation for today aligns with the bullish HTF order flow.

The Setup: During the London session or early New York cross-over, we are looking for a controlled retracement into the 4H Bullish FVG at 0.8580 - 0.8585.

The Trigger: We want to see a sweep of short-term internal liquidity (a micro SSL sweep on the 15-minute chart) into this FVG, followed immediately by an energetic displacement higher—creating a 5-minute or 15-minute Market Structure Shift (MSS) with its own internal FVG.

The Target: Once the institutional entry is confirmed in the discount zone, the algorithmic draw on liquidity will target the 0.8620 BSL. Partial profits should be secured at the 0.8600 psychological level, with a runner left for the 0.8620 highs. This scenario perfectly marries the fundamental tailwinds of the ECB rate hike with SMC precision.

Bearish Scenario

While the HTF bias is bullish, professional analysts must always map out the invalidation criteria. Market conditions can shift rapidly, and capital preservation is paramount.

The Setup: A bearish scenario unfolds if the London session fails to respect the discount arrays. If price slices through the 0.8580 FVG with heavy volume and closes a 4H candle below the 0.8570 Daily Order Block, our bullish thesis is temporarily invalidated.

The Trigger: Following a confirmed close below 0.8570, we would look for a retracement back up into a newly formed bearish FVG or a premium Order Block on the 1H chart.

The Target: A short entry from this premium array would target the major Sell-Side Liquidity resting at 0.8540. This scenario would suggest that the market has priced in the ECB news and is now hunting lower liquidity pools to balance the books.

Economic Calendar This Week

When trading SMC, we use macroeconomic events as the volatility catalyst to drive price into our predetermined liquidity pools and imbalances. Keep a close eye on the following events this week:

• Eurozone CPI Flash Estimates: Any uptick in inflation data will further justify the ECB's recent hawkish hike, adding fuel to the EUR/GBP bullish fire.
• UK Retail Sales: Weakness in UK consumer spending could weigh heavily on the Pound, validating the BoE’s decision to hold rates and supporting our bullish EUR/GBP bias.
• US Core PCE (Friday): While this is a USD event, dollar volatility often causes rippling effects across all major currency crosses. Expect heavy algorithmic repricing during the Friday New York session.

For real-time updates on how these events are impacting our trades, check out our Performance page to see how we navigate high-impact news.

FAQ

What does a hawkish ECB mean for EUR/GBP? A hawkish central bank generally signals higher interest rates to combat inflation. Because higher rates attract foreign investment seeking better yields, the currency (Euro) typically strengthens. When the Euro strengthens against the British Pound, the EUR/GBP exchange rate moves higher.

How do I trade Fair Value Gaps (FVG) effectively? In SMC methodology, an FVG represents an algorithmic price imbalance. We do not place blind limit orders at an FVG. Instead, we wait for price to trade into the FVG (the discount array) and look for a lower-timeframe Market Structure Shift (MSS) to confirm that institutional money is defending that zone before entering a trade.

Risk Disclaimer

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The information provided in this forecast is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. TebotechSignals does not guarantee any specific outcomes or profits.

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