EUR/USD Daily Forecast: September 7, 2026

Welcome to today's comprehensive EUR/USD market analysis from TebotechSignals. As we step into the trading week on this Monday, September 7, 2026, the Euro/US Dollar pair is currently hovering around the 1.1615 level. Following Friday's stronger-than-expected US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which triggered sharp two-way volatility, the market is now catching its breath. We are currently transitioning from the London morning session into the New York overlap, a prime window for institutional volume and liquidity sweeps. With major macroeconomic catalysts on the horizon this week, including the highly anticipated European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision and US inflation data, understanding the institutional footprint via Smart Money Concepts (SMC) is more critical than ever.

In this forecast, we will break down the Higher Time Frame (HTF) bias, identify key institutional order blocks, map out Fair Value Gaps (FVGs), and provide actionable bullish and bearish scenarios for today's intraday price action.

HTF Bias & Market Structure

From a Higher Time Frame (HTF) perspective, the EUR/USD is currently caught in a broader multi-month consolidation phase, defending pivotal support for a second consecutive week following the pullback from the August highs. The daily market structure remains finely balanced, presenting a neutral to slightly bearish bias until a clear displacement occurs.

Looking at the daily chart, price action is currently trading just above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1547 and the 200-day SMA at 1.1585. However, momentum indicators like the RSI are flashing bearish divergence, suggesting that the recent upward momentum may be losing steam.

In SMC terms, the market is currently trapped between major Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) resting above the 1.1745 swing highs and Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) pooled below the 1.1560 lows. The recent NFP-induced volatility created a massive liquidity grab, but failed to provide a sustained market structure shift (MSS). Until we see a decisive daily close outside of this 1.1560 - 1.1745 range, we must trade the extremes of the current dealing range, looking for institutional manipulation at key premium and discount arrays.

For a deeper dive into how we identify these structural shifts, check out our comprehensive SMC trading guide.

Key Levels to Watch

To navigate today's London and New York sessions, we have mapped out the critical institutional reference points. These are the zones where we expect algorithmic trading models to engage.

Premium Arrays (Resistance / Supply)

• 1.1746 - 1.1775: Major HTF Bearish Order Block and key structural resistance. This is the ultimate target for any sustained bullish reversal and houses significant Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL).
• 1.1680 - 1.1710: Daily Fair Value Gap (FVG). This imbalance was left behind during the recent aggressive sell-off and serves as a high-probability area for institutional short-sellers to reload.
• 1.1632 - 1.1635: Intraday Bearish Order Block (H1/H4). This is the immediate resistance level capping current price action. A sweep of the Asian session highs into this zone could trigger a reversal.

Discount Arrays (Support / Demand)

• 1.1585: 200-day SMA and immediate psychological support. Often acts as a dynamic algorithmic pivot.
• 1.1564 - 1.1578: Key HTF Bullish Order Block. The pair has defended this pivotal support zone for two weeks. It is a massive area of institutional accumulation.
• 1.1547: 50-day SMA and the line in the sand for the medium-term bullish trend.
• 1.1472: Deep discount target. If the 1.1560s give way, this 61.8% retracement level is the next major draw on liquidity.

Want to learn more about how we find these exact zones? Read our post on order blocks explained.

Bullish Scenario

For the bulls to take control today, we need to see a classic SMC accumulation schematic play out during the New York session.

The Setup: We are looking for a manipulation move lower to sweep the Asian session lows and tap into the 1.1564 - 1.1578 bullish order block.

The Trigger: Upon tapping this discount array, we need to see a sharp, energetic displacement higher on the 5-minute or 15-minute chart, leaving behind a fresh bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG) and breaking local market structure (MSS).

The Targets: If this setup materializes, traders can look to enter on a retracement into the newly formed FVG. The primary target will be the intraday BSL resting at 1.1635. If momentum sustains, the secondary target is the daily FVG starting at 1.1680.

Bearish Scenario

Given the underlying bearish momentum indicated by the HTF RSI and the overarching strength of the US Dollar post-NFP, the bearish scenario carries significant weight today.

The Setup: We are looking for a "Judas Swing" higher during the London/NY overlap. This would involve a fake-out rally that sweeps early morning retail buyers into the market, pushing price into the 1.1632 - 1.1635 intraday bearish order block.

The Trigger: Once inside this premium array, we want to see a rejection characterized by a bearish market structure shift on the lower time frames (LTF).

The Targets: An entry on the subsequent pullback would target the immediate SSL at 1.1585. If the selling pressure intensifies, the ultimate draw on liquidity for the day will be the major support zone at 1.1564. A daily close below this level would open the floodgates toward 1.1472 later in the week.

To see how these scenarios play out in real-time, monitor our premium signals and review our historical track record.

Economic Calendar This Week

Technical analysis does not exist in a vacuum. Smart Money uses high-impact macroeconomic events to inject volatility and reprice assets. This week is heavily loaded with tier-1 data that will dictate the EUR/USD trend for the rest of September:

• European Central Bank (ECB) Rate Decision: The marquee event for the Euro. Markets are closely watching to see if the ECB will maintain its current stance or signal a dovish pivot. Any divergence from expectations will cause massive repricing.
• US Consumer Price Index (CPI) & Producer Price Index (PPI): Following Friday's strong NFP data, these inflation metrics are the final pieces of the puzzle before the upcoming FOMC meeting. A hotter-than-expected CPI will likely cement expectations for further Fed tightening, sending the Dollar soaring and crushing the EUR/USD.

Traders must exercise extreme caution and manage risk tightly around these data releases, as spreads will widen and technical levels can be easily violated.

FAQ

What is the current trend for EUR/USD? The HTF trend is currently in a multi-month consolidation phase, trading around 1.1615. While price is above key moving averages (50-day and 200-day), momentum indicators suggest a neutral to slightly bearish bias in the short term.

How does the ECB rate decision affect EUR/USD? The ECB rate decision directly impacts the yield differential between the Eurozone and the US. A hawkish ECB (raising rates or signaling tighter policy) typically strengthens the Euro, pushing EUR/USD higher. Conversely, a dovish ECB weakens the Euro, driving the pair lower.

Risk Disclaimer

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. The analysis provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. TebotechSignals does not guarantee any specific outcomes or profits.

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