EUR/GBP Forecast: September 23, 2026

Welcome to today's daily market breakdown. As we transition from the London morning session into the New York overlap, the EUR/GBP cross is presenting compelling price action for Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and ICT traders. Currently hovering around the 0.8570 level, the pair remains heavily influenced by the ongoing monetary policy divergence between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE).

With German political uncertainty and preliminary September Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data capping the Euro's upside, the British Pound continues to show resilience. In this comprehensive daily forecast, we will break down the Higher Time Frame (HTF) bias, identify key institutional order blocks, map out Fair Value Gaps (FVGs), and establish actionable bullish and bearish scenarios for today's trading sessions. For more insights into our methodology, check out our premium signals and our historical performance.

HTF Bias & Market Structure

From a Higher Time Frame (HTF) perspective, the EUR/GBP market structure remains decidedly bearish. The daily chart reveals a consistent sequence of lower highs and lower lows, with price action trading below both the 50-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages.

In the context of ICT methodology, the market is currently in a premium array on the daily timeframe, seeking to reprice lower into discount zones. The bearish order flow is dictated by the fundamental backdrop: BoE Governor Andrew Bailey has maintained a hawkish stance, suggesting further tightening could be necessary, while the ECB's outlook appears more cautious, with potential rate cuts on the horizon for 2027.

We are observing a significant build-up of Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) resting below the recent swing lows near 0.8454. Until this liquidity pool is swept, the path of least resistance remains to the downside. Traders should be looking for premium arrays (bearish order blocks and FVGs) to frame short setups in alignment with the HTF draw on liquidity. For a deeper dive into identifying these structures, read our latest post on the blog/smc-trading-guide.

Key Levels to Watch

To navigate today's price action effectively, we must map out the critical institutional reference points. These are the levels where algorithmic repricing is most likely to occur:

• Key Resistance / Bearish Order Block (Premium): 0.8610 - 0.8621. This zone represents the last up-close candle before the recent aggressive displacement lower. It is a high-probability area for institutional sellers to defend.
• H4 Fair Value Gap (FVG): 0.8590 - 0.8605. This imbalance in price action was left behind during the recent sell-off. We expect price to gravitate toward this FVG to rebalance the market before continuing its descent.
• Current Price Action Zone: 0.8570. The pair is currently consolidating, building intraday liquidity on both sides of the market.
• Key Support / Sell-Side Liquidity (Discount): 0.8454. This is the major HTF draw on liquidity. A sweep of this level could trigger a significant corrective bounce.

Bullish Scenario

While the HTF bias is bearish, counter-trend opportunities can arise, especially if the market seeks to engineer liquidity before a larger move down.

For a bullish scenario to unfold today, we need to see a manipulation phase during the London/NY overlap. Specifically, we are looking for a sweep of the intraday Asian session lows (around 0.8540). If price sweeps this internal liquidity and immediately shows aggressive displacement higher, breaking market structure on the 15-minute chart (a bullish MSS - Market Structure Shift), we can look for longs.

The entry would be on a retracement into the newly formed bullish FVG or order block on the M5/M15 timeframe. The primary target for this counter-trend long would be the H4 FVG resting at 0.8590, and potentially the major bearish order block at 0.8610. Traders must manage risk aggressively here, as trading against the HTF order flow carries a lower probability of success.

Bearish Scenario

Our primary expectation aligns with the bearish HTF structure. The ideal bearish scenario involves a "Judas Swing" higher into our premium arrays during the New York session open.

We are watching for price to trade up into the 0.8590 - 0.8605 FVG or the 0.8610 bearish order block. Once price taps into these premium zones, we want to see a failure to push higher, followed by a bearish Market Structure Shift (MSS) on the lower timeframes (M5 or M15).

An entry can be taken on the subsequent retracement into the newly formed bearish FVG. The first partial profit target would be the current daily low, with the ultimate objective being the major Sell-Side Liquidity pool resting at 0.8454. This setup offers an excellent risk-to-reward ratio and aligns perfectly with the broader macroeconomic divergence between the Eurozone and the UK.

Economic Calendar This Week

When trading SMC, it is crucial to be aware of high-impact macroeconomic events, as these are the catalysts used by algorithms to seek liquidity and reprice the market.

• Preliminary September PMIs: Both the Eurozone and the UK are releasing preliminary Purchasing Managers Index data. These figures provide a real-time snapshot of economic health and can cause significant volatility.
• Central Bank Speeches: ECB President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to speak. Any dovish rhetoric regarding the Eurozone's economic outlook will likely accelerate the EUR/GBP sell-off.
• US Data (Indirect Impact): While not directly related to EUR/GBP, major US data releases (like Core PCE or NFP later in the month) can shift broader market risk sentiment, indirectly impacting the Euro and the Pound.

Always ensure you are flat or have risk removed ahead of these major red-folder news events to avoid slippage and algorithmic volatility spikes.

FAQ

From an SMC perspective, is EUR/GBP bullish or bearish today? The HTF bias for EUR/GBP remains strongly bearish. Price is trading below key moving averages, and institutional order flow is targeting the Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) resting at 0.8454. We are looking to sell premium arrays (FVGs and Order Blocks) near 0.8590 - 0.8610.

How does the Bank of England's policy affect the EUR/GBP forecast? The BoE's relatively hawkish stance, led by Governor Andrew Bailey, suggests that UK interest rates may remain higher for longer compared to the Eurozone. This interest rate differential makes the British Pound more attractive to institutional investors, driving the EUR/GBP exchange rate lower.

Risk Disclaimer

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. The analysis provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. TebotechSignals does not guarantee any specific outcomes from the use of this information.

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