EUR/GBP Forecast 2026-09-25: SMC Analysis & Key Liquidity Zones

Welcome to today's EUR/GBP market breakdown. As of the London session open on September 25, 2026, EUR/GBP is trading around the 0.8607 level, showing a slight bullish push (+0.34%) from the daily open. The pair has recently encountered resistance near the 0.8610-0.8613 zone, a critical area of interest for Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and ICT traders. With the broader market digesting recent central bank decisions and upcoming inflation data, understanding the institutional order flow is paramount for navigating today's price action.

HTF Bias & Market Structure

From a Higher Time Frame (HTF) perspective, EUR/GBP remains in a complex structural phase. The daily chart reveals a broader consolidation range, but recent price action indicates a short-term bullish corrective phase testing premium supply zones. The failure to decisively break and hold above the 0.8610 resistance suggests that institutional sellers may be defending this level, potentially viewing the recent run-up as a liquidity grab (buy-side liquidity sweep) before a continuation of the underlying bearish order flow.

However, if the daily candle closes firmly above 0.8610, it would signal a shift in market structure (BOS) to the upside, invalidating the immediate bearish bias and opening the door for a run toward the 0.8650 liquidity pool.

Key Levels to Watch

Applying SMC principles, we have identified the following critical zones for today's London and New York sessions:

• Key Resistance / Bearish Order Block (OB): 0.8610 - 0.8615. This is the immediate supply zone where price has recently stalled. A sweep of the 0.8613 high followed by a rapid rejection would confirm institutional selling.
• Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL): 0.8650. If the 0.8615 level breaks, this is the next major draw on liquidity.
• Fair Value Gap (FVG) / Imbalance: 0.8575 - 0.8585. This zone represents inefficient price action from the recent move up and serves as a high-probability area for price to rebalance.
• Key Support / Bullish Order Block (OB): 0.8540 - 0.8550. This is the origin of the recent bullish impulse and a strong area of demand.
• Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL): 0.8454. The major HTF swing low.

Bullish Scenario

For a bullish continuation, we want to see price retrace into the discount FVG zone between 0.8575 and 0.8585 during the London or early NY session. A lower timeframe (15m/5m) change of character (CHoCH) within this zone would provide a high-probability long entry. The initial target would be a retest of the 0.8610 resistance, with a secondary target at the 0.8650 BSL pool if momentum sustains.

Bearish Scenario

Our primary bearish scenario revolves around the current resistance at 0.8610 - 0.8615. If price sweeps the recent high of 0.8613 and immediately displaces lower, leaving an FVG on the 15m chart, this confirms a liquidity grab. Traders can look to enter short on the retracement into that newly formed FVG. The primary target for this short setup is the rebalancing of the 0.8575 FVG, with a deeper run targeting the 0.8540 demand zone if selling pressure intensifies.

Economic Calendar This Week

While today's calendar may be relatively light, traders must remain vigilant regarding broader macroeconomic themes. Key events to monitor this week include:

• Eurozone CPI Flash Estimates: Crucial for ECB rate expectations.
• UK Labor Statistics & Claimant Count: Key indicators for the BoE's next move.
• US PCE & GDP Data: While not directly EUR/GBP, USD volatility often spills over into broader FX markets.

Always check the economic calendar before entering trades, as high-impact news can easily invalidate technical setups.

FAQ

What is the current trend for EUR/GBP? On the daily timeframe, EUR/GBP is in a broad consolidation, but short-term momentum has been bullish, testing key resistance at 0.8610. A break above this level shifts the bias to bullish, while a rejection maintains a neutral-to-bearish outlook.

How do I trade the 0.8610 level using SMC? Wait for a reaction at 0.8610. If price sweeps above it and aggressively rejects (leaving an FVG), look for shorts. If price breaks through with strong displacement and closes above, look for longs on the retest of the broken level.

Risk Disclaimer

The analysis provided in this article is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Forex trading carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and use strict risk management.

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