Macro tool · separate from our signal engines
Institutional Positioning Indicator
Every Friday the US regulator (CFTC) publishes how pension funds, insurers and mutual funds ("asset managers") are positioned in currency futures. When they are unusually crowded in one currency compared with their own past year, that currency has tended to underperform the following week, and the least crowded ones have tended to do better. This page ranks the 7 major currencies against the US dollar every week.
This week's bias
Positions as of Oct 27, 2026 · for the week from Nov 2, 2026
| Currency | Asset managers net | Crowding vs past year | Bias vs USD |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR | +20% of open interest | -2.10 | Favour |
| AUD | -38.5% of open interest | -1.68 | Favour |
| GBP | -50.8% of open interest | -1.39 | Neutral |
| NZD | -36.3% of open interest | +0.14 | Neutral |
| CAD | -0.4% of open interest | +0.39 | Neutral |
| JPY | +24.4% of open interest | +1.56 | Fade |
| CHF | -18.5% of open interest | +1.93 | Fade |
"Crowding" is a z-score: +2 means asset managers hold far more of that currency than usual for the past 52 weeks; −2 means far less. The tested basket favours the 2 least crowded and fades the 2 most crowded, for one week.
20-year test
2007 to Oct 2026, weekly, entering the Monday after each report, trading costs deducted. Basket return per year:
- Average +3.5% a year, 15 of 20 years positive.
- Worst losing stretch −24.6% (2008 to 2009 crisis); −10.6% within 2022 to 2026.
- Unseen 2022 to 2026 data: +2.7% a year. A modest, real tendency, not a money machine.
Live record
Scored every week with the Federal Reserve's official exchange rates, from Nov 2026.
No finished weeks yet. The first result appears after the first full week.
How to use it
Use it as background, not as an entry signal. It works on a weekly horizon and across a basket of currencies, not on one trade. Our signal engines run separately and do not use it.
Data: CFTC Traders in Financial Futures report; Federal Reserve H.10 exchange rates. Educational content, not financial advice. Trading carries a high risk of loss; tested results do not guarantee future results. See also our signal performance and Risk Lab.