USD/JPY Forecast: SMC Price Analysis for September 23, 2026 Welcome to today's daily market breakdown provided by TebotechSignals. As we head into the New York session, the USD/JPY pair is currently trading around the 157.58 level, up 0.13% from the previous session, according to recent market data from Japanese Yen - Quote - Chart - Historical Data - News. Following the recent rate hikes from both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, the market has seen significant volatility. However, the dollar retains a bullish undertone, and we are seeing signs of stabilization that present high-probability setups for Smart Money Concepts (SMC) traders. For more insights, check out our premium signals and historical performance. ## HTF Bias & Market Structure From a Higher Time Frame (HTF) perspective, the daily chart maintains a bullish market structure. The pair recently pulled back but found strong institutional sponsorship above the 156.50 region, supported by the 20-day EMA as noted in USD/JPY Price Forecast: Signs of stabilization above 20-day EMA back more upside. We have not seen a bearish Market Structure Shift (MSS) on the daily timeframe, meaning our macro bias remains tilted to the upside. The current price action suggests accumulation, with institutional order flow delivering price higher toward unmitigated liquidity pools. ## Key Levels to Watch (SMC/ICT) To navigate today's London and NY sessions, we are monitoring the following key institutional levels: Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL): 158.00 (Friday's high) and 160.39 (September 2 high). Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL): 155.34 (September 17 low). Bullish Order Block (OB): 156.50 - 156.80 zone. Fair Value Gap (FVG): 157.10 - 157.30. Read more about identifying these zones in our SMC Order Blocks Guide. ## Bullish Scenario For our bullish scenario, we want to see a classic ICT Judas Swing during the London or early NY session. A temporary drop to sweep internal sell-side liquidity into the 157.10 - 157.30 FVG would offer an optimal trade entry. If we see a lower timeframe MSS with displacement to the upside from this zone, the primary target will be the 158.00 BSL. A sustained break above 158.00 opens the door for a run toward the 160.39 macro liquidity pool. ## Bearish Scenario While the HTF bias is bullish, we must remain objective. If the NY session brings heavy selling pressure that slices through the 157.10 FVG without any reaction, we will look for a breakdown of the 156.50 bullish Order Block. A daily close or strong H4 displacement below 156.50 would invalidate the bullish thesis, shifting our focus to a deeper retracement toward the 155.34 SSL. Learn how to hedge these scenarios in our USD/JPY Trading Strategy post. ## Economic Calendar This Week Macroeconomic data is the fuel for algorithmic price delivery. This week, the primary catalyst will be Friday's US labor market data (NFP) for September, as highlighted in Forex Economic Calendar Overview: Key Events for the Next Trading Week (28.09.2026–04.10.2026). Additionally, keep an eye on Thursday's US ISM Manufacturing PMI and Japanese CPI data. These high-impact events will likely inject the volatility needed to reach our HTF liquidity targets. ## FAQ Is USD/JPY bullish or bearish today? From an SMC perspective, the HTF bias remains bullish as long as price holds above the 156.50 institutional order block. What is the key SMC level to watch? The immediate zone of interest is the 157.10 - 157.30 Fair Value Gap (FVG), which may act as a springboard for the next leg up. ## Risk Disclaimer Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The analysis provided by TebotechSignals is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Never risk more than you can afford to lose. ## Join TebotechSignals Ready to trade alongside professional analysts? Stop guessing and start trading with precision. Join our community and get access to our free signals today to see our ICT/SMC methodology in action!