USD/JPY Price Forecast: September 21, 2026\n\nAs we transition from the London session into the New York overlap, the USD/JPY pair is trading around the 157.90 level, demonstrating significant bullish momentum USD/JPY Technical Analysis | FXMacroData. The macroeconomic backdrop remains heavily skewed in favor of the US Dollar, driven by the US 10-year Treasury yield breaking above the critical 5% threshold USD/JPY Forecast: US 10-Year Yield Breaks Above 5%. Meanwhile, despite recent Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hikes, the Japanese Yen continues to weaken as the moves were largely priced in and domestic inflation remains soft. For traders utilizing Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and ICT methodologies, this presents a textbook environment for trend continuation setups, provided we wait for optimal trade entries (OTE) within key discount arrays.\n\n## HTF Bias & Market Structure\n\nFrom a Higher Time Frame (HTF) perspective, the daily and weekly charts exhibit a clear Bullish Market Structure (BMS). We have consistently seen price action break previous swing highs, leaving behind institutional footprints in the form of Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) and unmitigated Order Blocks (OBs). The recent push above the 157.00 handle confirms that algorithmic pricing models are currently in a buy program, seeking higher premium liquidity pools. Until we see a decisive Market Structure Shift (MSS) on the 4-hour chart, our directional bias remains strictly long. Traders should review our recent SMC trading guide to understand how we align HTF bias with lower time frame execution.\n\n## Key Levels to Watch\n\nApplying ICT concepts, we have identified the following critical levels for today's sessions:\n\n* Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL): 158.60 - This is the next major draw on liquidity. Resting stop losses above previous historical highs make this a prime target for institutional algorithms.\n* Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL): 155.00 - A major psychological and structural level. A sweep of this area would be required to shift the HTF bias to bearish.\n* Bullish Order Block (OB): 156.50 to 157.00 - The last down-close candle before the recent impulsive expansion. This zone serves as a high-probability institutional sponsorship area.\n* Fair Value Gap (FVG): 157.20 to 157.50 - A clear imbalance on the 1H chart. We expect price to rebalance this inefficiency before continuing its ascent. Learn more about trading these imbalances in our FVG explained post.\n\n## Bullish Scenario\n\nIn our primary bullish scenario, we are looking for a classic London/NY continuation profile. We want to see price retrace into the 157.20 - 157.50 FVG during the New York session. If we observe a lower time frame (15m/5m) accumulation and subsequent displacement higher from this discount array, it provides a high-probability long entry. The initial target would be the Asian session highs, with a final take-profit objective at the 158.60 Buy-Side Liquidity pool. Stop losses should be placed below the 156.50 Order Block to invalidate the setup. For real-time execution alerts on setups like this, check out our premium signals and verify our historical performance.\n\n## Bearish Scenario\n\nWhile counter-trend, a bearish scenario could unfold if the US Dollar faces sudden fundamental headwinds. If price aggressively breaks and closes below the 156.50 Order Block, it would constitute a Market Structure Shift (MSS) on the 1H chart. In this event, we would wait for a retracement into a newly formed bearish FVG or breaker block before executing short positions. The downside target would be the 155.00 Sell-Side Liquidity pool, where early buyers have their stops resting. We do not recommend front-running this reversal; wait for structural confirmation.\n\n## Economic Calendar This Week\n\nVolatility is the lifeblood of SMC trading, and this week's economic calendar provides ample catalysts. The recent BoJ rate decision continues to reverberate through the markets, but the focus now shifts to US data. Traders must monitor upcoming Federal Reserve speaking engagements and any unexpected shifts in US Treasury yields, as the 5% level on the 10-year note is a critical pivot point for global capital flows. Ensure all positions are risk-managed ahead of any high-impact red folder events.\n\n## FAQ\n\nWhat is the current trend for USD/JPY?\nThe current higher time frame trend for USD/JPY is strongly bullish, driven by widening interest rate differentials between the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, alongside rising US Treasury yields.\n\nHow do I trade the USD/JPY using SMC today?\nFocus on buying pullbacks into discount arrays. Specifically, look for price to retrace into the 157.20-157.50 Fair Value Gap, wait for lower time frame confirmation (like a market structure shift to the upside), and target the 158.60 liquidity pool.\n\n## Risk Disclaimer\n\nTrading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment. TebotechSignals provides educational analysis and does not guarantee any specific trading outcomes. Always use strict risk management.\n\nReady to elevate your trading with institutional-grade analysis? Join our community and get started with TebotechSignals today by accessing our free signals to see our SMC methodology in action.