ICT Daily Bias Determination: Real Examples Across 5 Pairs
TL;DR:
- Daily bias is your directional bias for the day — bullish, bearish, or neutral
- This guide shows real bias determination across 5 pairs using ICT methodology
- Learn the 4-step process to determine bias every morning before London opens
- Getting bias right is the #1 factor in SMC profitability
What Is Daily Bias?
Daily bias is your directional expectation for the trading day — whether you expect price to move up (bullish), down (bearish), or sideways (neutral). In ICT methodology, daily bias is determined by analyzing the D1 and W1 timeframes before the London session opens.
Key Takeaways:
- Bias = direction (bullish/bearish/neutral)
- Determined from D1 and W1 before London open
- All trades should align with daily bias
- Wrong bias = wrong trades = losses
The 4-Step Bias Determination Process
Step 1: Check W1 (Weekly) Trend
- Higher highs + higher lows = bullish
- Lower highs + lower lows = bearish
- Mixed structure = neutral
Step 2: Check D1 (Daily) Market Structure
- Recent BOS confirms trend direction
- Recent CHoCH warns of potential reversal
- No clear structure = neutral/ranging
Step 3: Check Premium/Discount on D1
- Price below 50% of dealing range = discount (look for buys)
- Price above 50% = premium (look for sells)
Step 4: Check Liquidity Location
- Where is the nearest liquidity pool (target)?
- Price tends to move toward the nearest large liquidity pool
Real Examples: 5 Pairs (September 1, 2026)
1. EUR/USD — Bias: BULLISH
| Check | Finding |
|-------|---------|
| W1 trend | Higher highs/higher lows — bullish |
| D1 structure | Recent BOS above 1.0880 — bullish |
| Premium/Discount | Price at 1.0830 (discount zone) |
| Liquidity | Buy-side liquidity at 1.0950 (target above) |
| Bias | Bullish — look for buys in discount |
2. GBP/USD — Bias: BEARISH
| Check | Finding |
|-------|---------|
| W1 trend | Lower highs/lower lows — bearish |
| D1 structure | Recent BOS below 1.2650 — bearish |
| Premium/Discount | Price at 1.2680 (premium zone) |
| Liquidity | Sell-side liquidity at 1.2550 (target below) |
| Bias | Bearish — look for sells in premium |
3. USD/JPY — Bias: BULLISH
| Check | Finding |
|-------|---------|
| W1 trend | Higher highs/higher lows — bullish |
| D1 structure | Recent BOS above 148.00 — bullish |
| Premium/Discount | Price at 147.50 (discount zone) |
| Liquidity | Buy-side liquidity at 149.50 (target above) |
| Bias | Bullish — look for buys in discount |
4. XAU/USD — Bias: BULLISH
| Check | Finding |
|-------|---------|
| W1 trend | Higher highs/higher lows — bullish |
| D1 structure | Recent BOS above $2,410 — bullish |
| Premium/Discount | Price at $2,395 (discount zone) |
| Liquidity | Buy-side liquidity at $2,450 (target above) |
| Bias | Bullish — look for buys in discount |
5. AUD/USD — Bias: BEARISH
| Check | Finding |
|-------|---------|
| W1 trend | Lower highs/lower lows — bearish |
| D1 structure | Recent BOS below 0.6520 — bearish |
| Premium/Discount | Price at 0.6560 (premium zone) |
| Liquidity | Sell-side liquidity at 0.6440 (target below) |
| Bias | Bearish — look for sells in premium |
Daily Routine: How to Determine Bias Every Morning
- 20:00 EST (before bed): Check W1 trends for all pairs on your watchlist
- 01:30 EST (pre-London): Check D1 structure, premium/discount, and liquidity
- 01:45 EST: Write down bias for each pair (bullish/bearish/neutral)
- 02:00 EST (London open): Only look for setups that match your bias
What If Bias Is Neutral?
When bias is neutral (no clear HTF direction):
- Don't trade — this is the safest option
- Wait for a BOS or CHoCH to establish direction
- Range trade only if experienced — use premium/discount within the range
FAQ
Q: Can bias change during the day?
A: Yes. If a CHoCH occurs on D1 during the session, your bias may shift. Re-evaluate after any major structure change.
Q: How many pairs should I track?
A: 3-5 pairs maximum. More pairs = less analysis depth per pair.
Q: What if W1 and D1 conflict?
A: W1 takes priority. If W1 is bullish but D1 shows a bearish CHoCH, either wait for D1 to realign with W1 or trade with extreme caution (smaller position size).
Risk Disclaimer
⚠️ Trading involves significant risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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- 📊 Live Signals | 📈 Performance | 📚 Education | 📝 Blog
