How to Find Daily Bias in Forex: A Simple ICT Process
Daily bias is your answer to one question before the session starts: is price more likely to trade higher or lower today? Every ICT setup depends on it. A good entry in the wrong direction is still a losing trade.
Bias is a working view, not a prediction. You form it, trade in line with it, and drop it when the chart proves it wrong.
Step 1: Read the daily structure
Open the daily chart. Is price making higher highs and higher lows, or lower highs and lower lows? That is the background trend. If it is neither, the market is ranging, and you treat the range high and low as your reference points.
Step 2: Find the draw on liquidity
ICT teaches that price moves toward liquidity and toward imbalances. Ask where the nearest obvious target is:
- An old daily high or low that has not been taken
- Equal highs or equal lows
- An unfilled daily fair value gap
The most likely target is called the draw on liquidity. If the clearest target is above price, lean bullish. If it is below, lean bearish.
Step 3: Check premium and discount
Mark the current daily or weekly range and its midpoint. If price is in the lower half and your target is above, the bullish case is stronger. If price is already high in the range, a bullish idea has less room to work.
Step 4: Look at yesterday's candle
Note the previous day's high and low, and where it closed.
- A close near the high after taking out a prior high suggests continuation upward.
- A push above the prior day's high that closed back inside its range suggests the high was swept, which leans bearish.
The same logic applies in reverse for lows.
Step 5: Write it down
Finish this sentence before the session: "Today I expect price to move toward ___ because ___." If you cannot complete it, you have no bias. On those days the best decision is usually not to trade.
When is your bias wrong?
Decide in advance what would cancel it. For a bullish bias, that might be a daily close below the low you expected to hold. When that happens, stop looking for buys. Do not argue with the chart.
Common mistakes
- Forming bias on a low timeframe. The 5-minute chart changes direction many times a day.
- Changing bias mid-session without a reason. One candle against you is not a reason.
- Having a bias every day. Some days are unclear, and saying so is a valid conclusion.
Frequently asked questions
How long does this take?
About ten minutes once you are practised. Do it before your session, not during it.
Should I check the news?
Yes. A major release can override any technical view for the day. Know what is scheduled.
Is weekly bias different?
The process is the same on the weekly chart. Many traders set a weekly bias first and let the daily bias sit inside it.
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*This article is educational and is not financial advice. Trading forex and gold carries a high risk of loss.*
