GBP/USD Forecast: September 23, 2026 – SMC Levels & Liquidity Targets
As we transition from the London morning session into the New York overlap, the GBP/USD pair is currently trading near the 1.3550 level GBP/USD (GBPUSD=X) Live Rate, Chart & News. The market is exhibiting a consolidation phase after recent volatility, with institutional order flow heavily focused on key liquidity pools above and below the current price action. For traders utilizing Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and ICT methodologies, today's price action offers clear structural clues as we await further macroeconomic catalysts.
HTF Bias & Market Structure
From a Higher Time Frame (HTF) perspective, the GBP/USD maintains a constructive bullish bias as long as it holds above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) situated near 1.3445 GBP/USD Price Forecast: Holds steady to near 1.3600, with bullish bias intact above 100-day SMA. The daily market structure remains bullish, characterized by higher highs and higher lows. However, on the intraday charts (1H and 15M), we are observing a complex pullback phase. The algorithmic price delivery is currently seeking to balance recent inefficiencies, drawing price toward key Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) established earlier in the week.
Key Levels to Watch
To navigate today's sessions, we must map out the critical institutional reference points:
* Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) / Resistance: The immediate draw on liquidity rests at the 1.3558 swing high. A decisive break above this level opens the path toward the psychological 1.3600 handle GBP/USD Price Forecast: Bulls need 1.3560 to unlock 1.3600. Beyond that, the August high of 1.3655 serves as a major premium objective.
* Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) / Support: On the downside, the 1.3500 psychological level is a key area of interest. Below this, a deeper discount array is found at the mid-Bollinger band around 1.3540 and the 100-day SMA at 1.3445 GBP/USD Price Forecast: Holds steady to near 1.3600, with bullish bias intact above 100-day SMA.
* Order Blocks & FVGs: Look for a bullish order block on the 1H chart near 1.3520, which aligns with a recent FVG. This zone should offer strong institutional sponsorship if tested during the NY session.
Bullish Scenario
For the bullish scenario to unfold, we need to see a clear displacement above the 1.3560 level during the New York session. If price reclaims this threshold with energetic volume, it will confirm that the market makers are targeting the unmitigated BSL at 1.3600 GBP/USD Price Forecast: Bulls need 1.3560 to unlock 1.3600. Traders should look for a return to a newly formed discount FVG on the 5M or 15M chart to position long, targeting 1.3600 and eventually 1.3655. Check our premium /signals for real-time entry alerts.
Bearish Scenario
Conversely, if the GBP/USD fails to sustain momentum above 1.3550 and prints a bearish market structure shift (MSS) on the 15M chart, the narrative flips. A rejection at this premium array would likely trigger a run on the Sell-Side Liquidity resting below 1.3500. If the 1.3500 level gives way, expect a rapid repricing toward the 100-day SMA at 1.3445. This would align with a broader dollar strength narrative.
Economic Calendar This Week
Fundamental drivers are crucial for injecting the volatility needed to reach our SMC targets. Today, September 23, 2026, the primary focus is on the UK S&P Global Composite PMI data GBP USD | British Pound US Dollar. A stronger-than-expected PMI print could provide the necessary catalyst to sweep the 1.3600 BSL. Later in the week, traders should remain vigilant for any unexpected shifts in US economic data or Federal Reserve commentary, which could rapidly alter the DXY (US Dollar Index) trajectory.
FAQ
What is the current HTF trend for GBP/USD?
The Higher Time Frame trend remains bullish as long as the price sustains above the 100-day SMA at 1.3445. Institutional order flow continues to favor the upside on the daily charts.
How do SMC traders use Fair Value Gaps (FVGs)?
SMC traders view FVGs as areas of market inefficiency where only one side of the market (buyers or sellers) was offered. Price often returns to these gaps to rebalance the order flow before continuing in the direction of the HTF trend. Learn more in our /blog/smc-trading-guide.
Risk Disclaimer
*Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The information provided in this forecast is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. TebotechSignals does not guarantee any specific outcomes or profits. Past performance is not indicative of future results. See our full /performance metrics for historical data.*
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