GBP/USD Forecast 2026-09-22: Bullish Structure Holds Ahead of Key Data

Welcome to today's GBP/USD market analysis from TebotechSignals. As we head into the London and New York sessions on September 22, 2026, the British Pound is trading around the 1.3360 level against the US Dollar. Recent price action has shown a mix of consolidation and structural shifts, making it crucial to apply Smart Money Concepts (SMC) to navigate the current market environment.

HTF Bias & Market Structure

From a Higher Time Frame (HTF) perspective, the GBP/USD pair maintains a cautiously bullish bias. Recent price action has formed a Break of Structure (BOS) around the 1.3340 level, indicating that buyers are still stepping in to defend key support zones. However, we must remain vigilant as the pair has also printed lower highs on the intraday charts, suggesting a potential buildup of liquidity on both sides of the market.

Key Levels to Watch

When applying ICT methodology, identifying liquidity pools and institutional order blocks is paramount. Here are the key levels to monitor today:

• Resistance / Bearish Order Block: 1.3434 - 1.3480
• Fair Value Gap (FVG): 1.3385 - 1.3400
• Support / Bullish Order Block: 1.3340 - 1.3350
• Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL): 1.3280

Bullish Scenario

For the bullish scenario to play out, we need to see price respect the bullish order block around 1.3340 - 1.3350 during the London or early NY session. A strong rejection from this zone, coupled with a shift in market structure on the lower time frames (e.g., 15m or 5m), would provide a high-probability entry for a long position. The initial target would be the FVG at 1.3385, with a secondary target aiming for the buy-side liquidity resting above 1.3434.

Bearish Scenario

Conversely, if the market fails to hold the 1.3340 support level and we see a decisive close below it, the bullish bias will be invalidated. In this bearish scenario, we would look for a retracement back into a newly formed bearish order block or FVG to initiate short positions. The primary target for this move would be the sell-side liquidity pool located around 1.3280.

Economic Calendar This Week

Traders must stay aware of the macroeconomic context, as high-impact news can easily override technical setups. This week, keep an eye on:

• US Core PCE Price Index: A key inflation gauge for the Federal Reserve.
• UK GDP Data: Crucial for assessing the health of the British economy.
• Central Bank Speakers: Any comments from BoE or Fed officials could inject volatility.

FAQ

What is an Order Block in SMC? An order block is a specific candlestick or price zone where institutional traders (Smart Money) have accumulated large positions, often leading to significant price reversals when the market returns to that level.

Why is the London/NY overlap important? The overlap between the London and New York trading sessions (typically 8:00 AM to 12:00 PM EST) is the most liquid and volatile time of the day, offering the best opportunities for day traders.

Risk Disclaimer

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. The analysis provided here is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

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