EUR/USD Forecast 2026-09-23: Bearish Order Flow and Key Liquidity Zones

As we head into the core of today's trading, the EUR/USD pair is trading around the 1.1406 to 1.1422 zone, down approximately 0.37% from the previous session. The pair has experienced a significant retracement from the mid-September highs near 1.1650, driven by a tighter policy backdrop and shifting Treasury yields. As we transition from the London session into the New York session overlap, Smart Money Concepts (SMC) traders must closely monitor how price reacts to the current discount arrays.

HTF Bias & Market Structure

The Higher Time Frame (HTF) bias has shifted to short-term bearish following the aggressive displacement below the 1.1575 structural low. This break of structure (BOS) indicates that institutional order flow is currently sponsoring lower prices. The market is operating in a premium-to-discount delivery model, seeking sell-side liquidity (SSL) pools left intact during the June and July consolidation phases. Until we see a decisive Change of Character (CHoCH) on the H4 timeframe, the path of least resistance remains to the downside.

Key Levels to Watch

Applying ICT methodology, we have identified the following key institutional reference points:

• Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) / Support: 1.1365 (Previous July lows), 1.1325 (Deep discount Daily Order Block).
• Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) / Resistance: 1.1475 (Breaker block / flipped support), 1.1525 (H4 Bearish Order Block), 1.1575 (Major structural resistance).
• Fair Value Gaps (FVG): There is a prominent H1 FVG resting between 1.1440 and 1.1470, which may act as a magnet for price if a retracement occurs.

Bullish Scenario

For a bullish scenario to unfold today, we need to see a manipulation move (Judas Swing) sweeping the 1.1400 psychological level during the early New York session, followed by an energetic displacement higher. If price reclaims the 1.1425 level and forms a 15-minute CHoCH, aggressive counter-trend traders can look for longs targeting the 1.1475 breaker block to fill the immediate H1 FVG. A break above 1.1475 would be required to suggest the September decline is stabilizing.

Bearish Scenario

The bearish scenario aligns with the current HTF order flow. If the New York session opens with heavy displacement below 1.1400, or if price retraces into the 1.1440-1.1470 FVG and prints a bearish rejection block, we will look for short setups. The primary target for this continuation play is the sell-side liquidity resting at 1.1365, with a secondary objective at the 1.1325 deep discount order block.

Economic Calendar This Week

Fundamental catalysts remain crucial for injecting volatility into our technical levels. Earlier today, the German Current Assessment for September was released, keeping Euro volatility active. For the remainder of the week, traders should monitor US inflation and labor-market releases, as well as Treasury-yield fluctuations, which will heavily influence the DXY and, consequently, EUR/USD order flow.

FAQ

What is the current HTF bias for EUR/USD? The current Higher Time Frame bias is short-term bearish, following the structural break below 1.1575, targeting deeper discount liquidity pools near 1.1365.

How do I trade the New York session overlap? SMC traders typically wait for the London session to set the high or low of the day, looking for the NY session to either provide a continuation setup via an order block/FVG or a reversal after sweeping London liquidity.

Risk Disclaimer

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The analysis provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and manage your risk strictly.

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