EUR/USD Forecast: September 22, 2026

Welcome to today's daily market breakdown. As we head into the New York session, the EUR/USD pair is currently hovering around the 1.1469 level, showing a slight intraday uptick of 0.04% Euro US Dollar Exchange Rate - EUR/USD - Quote - Chart. The market is currently coiling in a tight September range, digesting recent hawkish guidance from the ECB while anticipating the upcoming FOMC decision Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Coils in September Range Ahead of Fed. For Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and ICT traders, this consolidation phase presents prime opportunities to identify unmitigated order blocks and liquidity pools before the next major expansion.

HTF Bias & Market Structure

From a Higher Time Frame (HTF) perspective, the EUR/USD has been experiencing a bearish corrective phase despite improving momentum on the lower time frames EUR USD Live Analysis - Forex. The weekly structure shows that price recently failed to break the pivotal resistance at 1.1490, leaving a trail of buy-side liquidity (BSL) resting above this high. However, the broader macro structure still respects the long-term support zones established earlier in the year. Our HTF bias remains cautiously neutral-to-bearish until we see a decisive market structure shift (MSS) above the 1.1490 to 1.1534 region. Traders should monitor our premium /signals for real-time alerts on these structural shifts.

Key Levels to Watch

Applying ICT methodology, we have identified several critical zones of interest for today's London and New York overlap:

• Resistance / BSL: The immediate draw on liquidity is the 1.1490 level. Above that, a significant bearish order block (OB) sits at 1.1534/78, which aligns with the 38.2% retracement of the summer advance Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Coils in September Range Ahead of Fed.
• Support / SSL: Sell-side liquidity (SSL) is resting below the recent swing lows at 1.1472 and deeper down at the 1.1365 Fair Value Gap (FVG) Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Coils in September Range Ahead of Fed.
• FVG Zones: There is a prominent M15 FVG between 1.1450 and 1.1460 that remains unmitigated and could serve as a springboard for NY session volatility.

Bullish Scenario

For a bullish continuation, we need to see price sweep the Asian session lows, mitigating the M15 FVG at 1.1450, followed by a sharp displacement higher. If we get a bullish market structure shift (MSS) on the 5-minute chart with a corresponding displacement, the primary target will be the buy-side liquidity resting at 1.1490. A sustained break above this level opens the door to the HTF order block at 1.1534. To see how we trade these setups, check out our recent trading /performance metrics.

Bearish Scenario

Conversely, the bearish scenario aligns with the current HTF corrective trend. If the New York session opens with a false run higher (a classic Judas Swing) that sweeps the 1.1490 liquidity pool but fails to close above it, we will look for a bearish MSS. A rejection at this premium array would set the stage for a move lower, targeting the sell-side liquidity at 1.1472, with extended targets at the 1.1365 daily support zone. Read more about identifying these traps in our liquidity concepts /blog/post.

Economic Calendar This Week

Volatility is expected to spike significantly this week. The primary catalyst will be the upcoming FOMC interest rate decision and subsequent press conference. Additionally, traders must keep an eye on Eurozone CPI data and the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report later in the week, as these will heavily influence the DXY and EUR/USD trends EURUSD Outlook: Key Levels Defining 2026 Trends. Ensure your positions are properly sized or flat heading into these high-impact news releases.

FAQ

What is an Order Block (OB) in SMC? An order block is the last bearish candle before a strong bullish move (or vice versa) that breaks market structure. It represents a footprint of institutional buying or selling where we expect price to react upon return.

How does the FOMC affect EUR/USD? The FOMC sets US interest rates. Hawkish policy (higher rates) typically strengthens the USD, pushing EUR/USD lower, while dovish policy weakens the USD, driving EUR/USD higher.

Risk Disclaimer

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The analysis provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Never risk more than you can afford to lose.

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