EUR/USD Forecast: Navigating Bearish Order Flow (2026-09-21)
As we transition from the London morning into the New York session, the EUR/USD is currently trading around the 1.1475 level, reflecting a continued bearish tone following recent hawkish rate decisions from both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. The pair has slipped lower during recent intraday trading, shedding approximately 0.09% from the previous session. With the market digesting these macroeconomic shifts, Smart Money Concepts (SMC) traders must remain vigilant of key liquidity pools and institutional order flow as we await further catalysts today.
HTF Bias & Market Structure
From a Higher Time Frame (HTF) perspective, the EUR/USD bias remains firmly bearish. Following the failure to sustain the early September highs near 1.1600, the market has experienced a clear shift in market structure (MSS) to the downside. The recent hawkish posturing by central banks has fueled a strong dollar narrative, pushing the euro lower.
Currently, the daily chart shows a series of lower highs and lower lows, with price action trading below the 50-day EMA. The institutional order flow is clearly targeting sell-side liquidity (SSL) resting below the 1.1400 psychological handle. Until we see a decisive bullish displacement and a break of the current bearish market structure on the 4H chart, our primary bias remains short, looking to sell premium pricing.
Key Levels to Watch
Applying ICT methodology, we have identified several critical zones for today's price action:
* Bearish Order Block (OB) / Premium Resistance: 1.1550. This level served as the origin of the recent aggressive sell-off and remains a highly defended institutional price point.
* Fair Value Gap (FVG): 1.1510 - 1.1530. This imbalance on the 1H chart represents a prime area for a potential New York session retracement before continuation lower.
* Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) / Target: 1.1400. A major psychological level and the next logical draw on liquidity for the current bearish delivery.
* Immediate Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL): 1.1495. Resting liquidity above the Asian session highs.
Bullish Scenario
While the HTF bias is bearish, intraday counter-trend opportunities may arise. For a bullish scenario to unfold, we need to see a manipulation move—a sweep of the immediate Asian session lows near 1.1450, followed by a strong, energetic displacement higher that breaks local market structure.
If price can reclaim the 1.1480 level with conviction, we could see a retracement rally targeting the 1H FVG at 1.1510 - 1.1530. Traders should look for a bullish order block formation on the 5m or 15m charts to validate this move. However, this should be treated as a short-term scalp, as it trades against the dominant HTF order flow.
Bearish Scenario
Our primary bearish scenario aligns with the HTF narrative. We are looking for a "Judas Swing" higher during the New York open, sweeping the Asian session BSL at 1.1495 and tapping into the premium FVG zone between 1.1510 and 1.1530.
Upon reaching this premium array, we want to observe a lower time frame (LTF) market structure shift to the downside. A rejection from this zone provides a high-probability short entry, targeting the 1.1400 SSL. A stop-loss placed above the 1.1550 order block invalidates the setup. For those looking to automate their execution, check out our premium signals and review our recent performance.
Economic Calendar This Week
The macroeconomic calendar for today (September 21, 2026) is relatively light on hard data, but it is heavily weighted toward central bank rhetoric. The primary event risk is the scheduled speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde this afternoon.
Markets will be scrutinizing her comments for any forward guidance regarding the ECB's interest rate path following their recent decisions. Volatility spikes are highly probable during her address, so traders should manage risk accordingly and avoid entering positions immediately prior to the speech. Later in the week, we will also be monitoring US Flash Manufacturing PMI data.
FAQ
What is a Fair Value Gap (FVG) in SMC?
A Fair Value Gap (FVG) is a three-candle formation that highlights an imbalance in price delivery. It occurs when price moves so rapidly that it leaves a gap between the first candle's wick and the third candle's wick, indicating a lack of trading at those specific price levels. Institutions often return to these zones to rebalance the market.
How does the London/NY overlap affect EUR/USD?
The overlap between the London and New York sessions (typically 8:00 AM to 12:00 PM EST) is the most liquid and volatile time of the trading day. This window often provides the most reliable price action and institutional displacement, making it the ideal time to execute SMC-based setups.
Risk Disclaimer
*Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment. The analysis provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Never guarantee outcomes in the financial markets.*
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