EUR/USD Forecast 2026-09-18: Navigating FOMC Volatility and Liquidity Zones
As we transition from the London morning session into the New York open, the EUR/USD pair is currently trading around the 1.1485 level. Market participants are heavily positioning themselves ahead of this week's high-impact macroeconomic data, leading to a complex delivery of price action. At TebotechSignals, our focus remains strictly on Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and ICT methodologies to filter out the noise and identify high-probability institutional footprints.
HTF Bias & Market Structure
From a Higher Time Frame (HTF) perspective, the EUR/USD has been operating within a broader corrective phase. After recovering from the July lows, the daily structure shows bullish intent, but price action is currently compressing. We are observing a classic premium vs. discount array dynamic. The recent push toward 1.1600 left significant Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) resting above, while the pullback to the 1.1480 region has tapped into a daily Fair Value Gap (FVG). The HTF bias remains cautiously bullish as long as the critical structural support at 1.1280 holds, but near-term order flow suggests a potential sweep of internal liquidity before any major expansion.
Key Levels to Watch
Applying ICT concepts, we have identified the following institutional reference points for today's sessions:
* Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) / Bearish Order Block: 1.1600 - 1.1635. This is a major premium array. A sweep of this level could trigger a sharp reversal if displacement fails to follow.
* Fair Value Gap (FVG): 1.1500 - 1.1540. This imbalance is currently acting as a near-term resistance zone during the London session.
* Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) / Bullish Order Block: 1.1350. This is our primary discount array and a high-probability area for institutional accumulation.
* Critical Structural Support: 1.1280. A daily close below this level invalidates the HTF bullish thesis.
Bullish Scenario
For a high-probability long setup, we want to see a manipulation move during the New York session that sweeps early buyers. A quick dip into the 1.1400 - 1.1450 discount zone, followed by an energetic displacement higher that breaks local market structure (BMS), would confirm institutional sponsorship. The primary target for this scenario would be the FVG fill at 1.1540, with a secondary target resting at the 1.1600 BSL pool. For more real-time updates on this setup, check our premium signals dashboard.
Bearish Scenario
If the New York session opens with a false rally into the 1.1540 FVG and immediately rejects with a bearish displacement, we will look for short opportunities. A breakdown below the Asian session lows would confirm the bearish order flow, targeting the unmitigated SSL at 1.1350. Traders should watch for a bearish breaker block formation on the 15-minute chart to validate the entry.
Economic Calendar This Week
Volatility is expected to spike significantly due to key macroeconomic catalysts. According to recent economic calendar data, the primary drivers this week include:
* FOMC Rate Decision & Press Conference: The market is closely watching Chairman Warsh for forward guidance on rate cuts.
* US Consumer Price Index (CPI): Crucial inflation data that will dictate the US Dollar Index (DXY) order flow.
* ECB Press Conference: Christine Lagarde's commentary will heavily influence the Euro's strength.
To understand how we trade around these events, read our SMC guide to trading news.
FAQ
Is EUR/USD bullish or bearish today?
The near-term bias is neutral to slightly bearish as price consolidates below the 1.1540 FVG, but the HTF structure remains bullish as long as 1.1280 holds.
What is the most important SMC level for EUR/USD right now?
The 1.1600 BSL is the major upside target, while the 1.1350 bullish order block is the key downside defense line for smart money.
Risk Disclaimer
*Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The analysis provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Never risk more than you can afford to lose.*
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