EUR/USD Forecast: September 11, 2026 – CPI Liquidity Sweep & SMC Setup\n\nWelcome to today's comprehensive EUR/USD market analysis provided by TebotechSignals. As we navigate the complexities of the forex market, our focus remains on utilizing Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and Inner Circle Trader (ICT) methodologies to decode institutional order flow. Today, September 11, 2026, the EUR/USD pair is trading around the 1.1596 level [1], down slightly from previous sessions as the market digests yesterday's European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision and braces for the highly anticipated US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release [10].\n\nIn this daily forecast, we will break down the higher timeframe (HTF) bias, identify key order blocks (OB) and fair value gaps (FVG), and outline actionable bullish and bearish scenarios for the upcoming New York trading session. Whether you are trading the London killzone or waiting for the NY open, understanding where liquidity rests is paramount.\n\n## HTF Bias & Market Structure\n\nTo establish a high-probability trading plan, we must first zoom out and analyze the higher timeframe market structure. On the daily chart, EUR/USD has been navigating a complex consolidation phase, recently testing the critical 200-day moving average [10]. The broader structure has shown signs of bearish order flow, characterized by lower highs and lower lows on the 4-hour timeframe.\n\nFollowing yesterday's ECB policy decision, which highlighted stagflation risks and a potentially dovish outlook despite elevated oil prices [10], the euro has struggled to maintain upward momentum. The HTF bias currently leans bearish to neutral, pending a decisive break of structure (BOS). We are observing a buildup of sell-side liquidity (SSL) below the recent swing lows, which institutional algorithms often target before initiating a true reversal.\n\nFor a comprehensive understanding of how we determine these structural shifts, review our educational resources on our blog and explore our historical performance metrics.\n\n## Key Levels to Watch\n\nApplying ICT principles, we have mapped out the critical zones where smart money is likely to engage. These levels represent areas of significant imbalance and unmitigated order blocks.\n\n* 1.1635 - Bearish Order Block (Resistance): This level acted as the last point of support before the recent breakdown and now serves as a formidable resistance zone [10]. It aligns with a prominent H4 bearish order block and a descending trendline. A mitigation of this level during the London or NY session could offer a high-probability short entry.\n* 1.1700 - Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL): Should the market push through 1.1635, the next major draw on liquidity is the psychological 1.1700 handle, where early short sellers have placed their stop losses.\n* 1.1565 - Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL): This is the immediate downside target. A sweep of this level could trigger a short-term reversal if accompanied by a lower timeframe Change of Character (CHOCH).\n* 1.1500 - Major Structural Support: A critical psychological and structural level. A confirmed close below this zone would invalidate any near-term bullish recovery scenarios and open the door for a deeper decline toward 1.1405 [10].\n\n## Bullish Scenario\n\nWhile the HTF bias leans bearish, the intraday dynamics—especially around major news events like the US CPI—can create explosive counter-trend opportunities. Our bullish scenario hinges on a classic ICT liquidity sweep.\n\nWe are looking for price to aggressively sweep the sell-side liquidity at 1.1565 during the New York killzone. Following this sweep, we need to see a rapid displacement higher, creating a 15-minute CHOCH and leaving behind a bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG). If this structural shift occurs, traders can look to enter long on a retracement into the newly formed FVG or bullish order block.\n\n* Entry Trigger: 15m CHOCH after sweeping 1.1565.\n* Invalidation: A sustained 1-hour candle close below 1.1550.\n* Target 1: 1.1600 (Psychological level and internal liquidity).\n* Target 2: 1.1635 (H4 Bearish Order Block).\n\nFor real-time updates on these setups, consider subscribing to our premium signals.\n\n## Bearish Scenario\n\nGiven the overarching macroeconomic backdrop and the technical rejection near the 200-day moving average, the bearish scenario aligns more closely with the current institutional order flow. The US dollar continues to find support from hawkish Fed expectations and elevated Treasury yields.\n\nOur primary bearish setup involves a retracement into the premium array of the current dealing range. We are monitoring the 1.1620 - 1.1635 zone for a mitigation of the H4 bearish order block. If price reaches this zone and prints a bearish CHOCH on the 5-minute or 15-minute chart, it signals that smart money is defending the level.\n\n* Entry Trigger: Bearish CHOCH within the 1.1620 - 1.1635 order block.\n* Invalidation: A 1-hour close above 1.1650.\n* Target 1: 1.1565 (Current swing low liquidity).\n* Target 2: 1.1500 (Major structural support).\n\nAlternatively, a high-momentum breakdown and 1-hour close below 1.1565, followed by a retest of the breakdown level as a bearish breaker block, would also validate further downside.\n\n## Economic Calendar This Week\n\nFundamental catalysts are the engine that drives price into our technical SMC levels. This week is heavily loaded with high-impact events that will inject volatility into the EUR/USD pair.\n\n* Thursday, Sept 10: ECB Interest Rate Decision. The ECB's commentary on stagflation and energy prices has already set a cautious tone for the euro [10].\n* Friday, Sept 11 (Today): US Consumer Price Index (CPI). This is the marquee event of the week. The inflation data will heavily influence the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decisions. A hotter-than-expected CPI print will likely drive the US dollar higher, pushing EUR/USD toward our 1.1500 bearish target. Conversely, a cooler print could spark a dollar sell-off, triggering our bullish liquidity sweep scenario [10].\n\nTraders must exercise extreme caution during the CPI release window (typically 8:30 AM EST). Spreads will widen, and slippage is highly probable. It is often prudent to wait for the initial algorithmic volatility to subside and trade the subsequent structural setup.\n\n## FAQ\n\n1. Is EUR/USD bullish or bearish right now?\nThe near-term bias for EUR/USD is bearish to neutral as it consolidates below the 1.1635 resistance level and tests the 200-day moving average. However, intraday direction will heavily depend on today's US CPI data and how price reacts to the 1.1565 liquidity pool.\n\n2. How do I trade the US CPI release using SMC?\nUsing Smart Money Concepts, we do not guess the direction of the news. Instead, we wait for the news to sweep a major liquidity pool (like 1.1565 or 1.1635), observe a lower timeframe Change of Character (CHOCH) indicating institutional sponsorship, and enter on the pullback into a Fair Value Gap (FVG) or Order Block.\n\n## Risk Disclaimer\n\nTrading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment. The analysis and forecasts provided in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Never guarantee outcomes in the financial markets.\n\n## Join TebotechSignals\n\nReady to elevate your trading with institutional-grade analysis? Stop guessing and start trading with precision. Check out our free signals to experience the power of SMC and ICT methodologies firsthand, or dive deeper into our educational content on our blog.